Daisuke Matsuzaka: For Better or Worse 2009

Ask most sabermetrically inclined minds their opinion of Daisuke Matsuzaka's success in 2008 and they'll all fall in line responding, "lucky, he can't keep it up". They'll throw alot of facts at you, and those facts all have merit when applied to the general pitching masses out there.  

But after watching Daisuke with my own eyes for two full seasons now, I don't know if you can take any generally accepted principles and apply them to the enigma we see wrapped in the #18 jersey.

Matsuzaka's gaudy 18-3 record and 2.90 ERA in 2008 can't be counted on again in 2009.  I'll go out on a limb and say that if he were able to repeat those marks, the Red Sox will break the 100 win mark with ease.  So what can we expect from Dice-K in 2009?

Let's walk through the litany of reasons people will point to regression in 2009 for Daisuke Matsuzaka.

BABIP: People will, and should, point to Dice-K's Batting Average on Balls In Play against as exhibit #1 in the case against Matsuzaka repeating hit 2008 performance.  They'll call his ability to get outs on batted balls a factor of luck instead of an inability of opposing batters to get good wood on the ball against him.  Average BABIP against across the league is .300, Matsuzaka's BABIP against in 2008 was .267.  OK...I'll bite here.  That can't be sustainable.  For context, his BABIP in year one with the Sox was .306.

Walk Rate: If I were so motivated, I would look up how many times last season Daisuke walked the bases loaded with 0 or 1 out only to weasel out of the jam without damage (more on the weaseling in a second).  Matsuzaka's lack of willingness to pitch in the zone and his propensity to nibble yielded a remarkable walk rate in 2008; 5.05 BB/9.  Over his entire professional career, Matsuzaka's Walk Rate was only higher in his second season in Japan.  It is certainly hard to believe that Matsuzaka can continue to keep runners from coming around to hurt him with walk levels in the 5+ range this season. 

Keep this in mind.  Since 1999, only six pitchers (including Daiskuke in 2008) were able to keep an ERA under 4.00 while posting a walk rate of 5.00 or higher. 

1. Kaz Ishii, LAD (2003), 6.18 BB/9, 3.86 ERA

2. Russ Ortiz, SFG (1999), 5.42 BB/9, 3.81 ERA

3. Brandon Webb, ARI (2004), 5.15 BB/9, 3.59 ERA

4. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS (2008), 5.05 BB/9, 2.90 ERA

5. Al Leiter, NYM (2004), 5.03 BB/9, 3.21 ERA

6. Noah Lowry, SFG (2007), 5.02 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

Left on Base %: One of the reasons that Daisuke was able to get out of the situations he put himself into without damage was his aforementioned ability to weasel.  By September, you no longer had heart attacks when Matsuzaka would face a batter with two men on and no outs.  They weren't going to score.  It was just that simple.

League average strand rates are in the 71% range.  In 2008, Matsuzaka stranded a remarkable 80.6% of the runners that reached base against him.  Lucky?  I am not so sure.  Statistics would tell you that he should regress to the mean.  But look over the course of his professional career and Daisuke shows you that he's no stranger to working out of jams.  Over his ten year professional career, Matsuzaka has stranded 77.7% of runners he has put on base.  

So maybe he is what he is.

Can Daisuke Matsuzaka repeat the mind boggling performance of 2008?  Statistics would tell you, multiple ways, that he can not.  But I am not so sure that Daisuke isn't something unique... http://firebrandal.com